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Estudiantes La Plata Res vs Atl. Rafaela 2 Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Wednesday, August 12, 2026, 18:00

Estudiantes La Plata Res

PPG 1.82 · HOME

UPCOMING

Atl. Rafaela 2

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.53 for Home, form 1.82 vs 0.50 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-13.8%0-21.3%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.4%1-18.4%1-22.8%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.7%2-19.2%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.0%3-16.8%3-22.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-09.2%4+-16.2%4+-22.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.4% — — —

Draw 21.0% — — —

Away win 14.6% — — —

Over 2.5 53.7% — — —

Over 3.5 31.8% — — —

BTTS 49.2% — — —

Home O1.5 63.0% — — —

Away O1.5 17.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -20.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.2%

H 64% / xG 2.2-0.7 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.7%

#2 1–0 12.4%

#3 3–0 10.0%

#4 1–1 8.4%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Estudiantes La Plata Res2.2

Atl. Rafaela 20.7

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ESTUDIANTES LA PLATA RES · PPG 1.82

ATL. RAFAELA 2 · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.53 for Home, form 1.82 vs 0.50 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Estudiantes La Plata Res (H) 64.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Atl. Rafaela 2 (A) 14.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Estudiantes La Plata Res face Atl. Rafaela 2 in Argentina - Reserve League on Wednesday, August 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Estudiantes La Plata Res a 64% chance, the draw 21% and Atl. Rafaela 2 15%, so Estudiantes La Plata Res are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Estudiantes La Plata Res and 0.7 for Atl. Rafaela 2 (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Estudiantes La Plata Res are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 0.50 for Atl. Rafaela 2.

Estudiantes La Plata Res vs Atl. Rafaela 2 Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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