Leagues / ARGENTINA / Reserve League
Reserve League
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 110 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
33.6%
1X2
37/110
56.4%
O/U 2.5
62/110
52.7%
BTTS
58/110
61.8%
Exact score
68/110
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
22
Settled
45.5%
Hit rate
10/22
1.96
Avg odds
-10.2%
ROI
-2.3u
Picks by market
OVER 2.5 · N=9 33.3% HIT · AVG 2.01 · -33.3% ROI
HOME WIN · N=6 66.7% HIT · AVG 1.90 · +31.2% ROI
HOME O1.5 · N=4 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.92 · -5.5% ROI
BTTS · N=3 33.3% HIT · AVG 1.99 · -30.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
2
Bets
0%
Hit
-100.0%
ROI
✓ Solid
5
Bets
60%
Hit
+29.4%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
15
Bets
47%
Hit
-11.5%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
September 2026 // 12 PICKS · 8 HIT · 4 MISS
3 SEPT Gimnasia Mendoza 2 vs Rosario Central Res. BTTS -5% 1–2 HIT3 SEPT Defensa y Justicia Res. vs Independiente Riva. Res. HO1.5 4–0 HIT3 SEPT Barracas Central Res. vs Banfield Res. — NO PICK 0–2 —3 SEPT Huracán Res. vs Central Córdoba SdE Res. Home -4% 5–1 HIT3 SEPT Boca Juniors Res. vs Quilmes 2 Home 1–0 HIT2 SEPT Ferro 2 vs Estudiantes La Plata Res BTTS +2% 0–1 MISS2 SEPT Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 vs San Martín San Juan Res. Over 2.5 1–0 MISS2 SEPT Newell's Old Boys Res. vs Deportivo Riestra Res. — NO PICK 0–2 —2 SEPT Godoy Cruz Res. vs Tigre Res. BTTS -3% 2–2 HIT2 SEPT Atlético Tucumán Res. vs San Lorenzo Res. Over 2.5 +1% 2–1 HIT2 SEPT Independiente Res. vs Platense Res. Home +10% 1–1 MISS2 SEPT Talleres Córdoba Res. vs Instituto Res. BTTS +6% 0–1 MISS1 SEPT Unión Santa Fe Res. vs Vélez Sársfield Res. — NO PICK 0–0 —1 SEPT Lanús Res. vs Belgrano Córdoba Res. HO1.5 3–1 HIT1 SEPT Aldosivi Res. vs Racing Club Res. BTTS 2–2 HIT