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Quilmes 2 vs Platense Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Thursday, August 13, 2026, 18:00

Quilmes 2

PPG 2.18 · HOME

UPCOMING

Platense Res.

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.86 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.7%0-17.7%0-21.7%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-022.9%1-110.0%1-22.2%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-014.8%2-16.5%2-21.4%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-06.4%3-12.8%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-11.2%4+-20.3%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.7% — — —

Draw 28.2% — — —

Away win 16.1% — — —

Over 2.5 36.3% — — —

Over 3.5 17.7% — — —

BTTS 44.6% — — —

Home O1.5 37.9% — — —

Away O1.5 12.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 30%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 66%

ROI 0.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob44.6%

H 56% / xG 1.3-0.4 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 22.9%

#2 0–0 17.7%

#3 2–0 14.8%

#4 1–1 10.0%

#5 2–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Quilmes 21.3

Platense Res.0.4

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.3% · O3.5 PROB 17.7%

Form & verdict PPG

QUILMES 2 · PPG 2.18

PLATENSE RES. · PPG 1.10

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.86 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Quilmes 2 (H) 55.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Platense Res. (A) 16.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Quilmes 2 face Platense Res. in Argentina - Reserve League on Thursday, August 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Quilmes 2 a 56% chance, the draw 28% and Platense Res. 16%, so Quilmes 2 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Quilmes 2 and 0.4 for Platense Res. (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Quilmes 2 are averaging 2.18 points per game versus 1.10 for Platense Res..

Quilmes 2 vs Platense Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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