Today / Argentina - Reserve League / Instituto Res. vs Aldosivi Res.

Instituto Res. vs Aldosivi Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Wednesday, August 12, 2026, 18:00

Instituto Res.

PPG 1.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Aldosivi Res.

PPG 0.55 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.76 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.9%0-18.1%0-22.8%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.2%1-111.8%1-24.0%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.4%2-18.5%2-22.9%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.0%3-14.1%3-21.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-12.0%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.7% — — —

Draw 25.4% — — —

Away win 21.9% — — —

Over 2.5 49.9% — — —

Over 3.5 28.7% — — —

BTTS 48.5% — — —

Home O1.5 45.1% — — —

Away O1.5 17.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -20.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.5%

H 53% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.2%

#2 0–0 11.9%

#3 1–1 11.8%

#4 2–0 12.4%

#5 2–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Instituto Res.1.4

Aldosivi Res.0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

INSTITUTO RES. · PPG 1.40

ALDOSIVI RES. · PPG 0.55

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.76 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Instituto Res. (H) 52.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Aldosivi Res. (A) 21.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Instituto Res. face Aldosivi Res. in Argentina - Reserve League on Wednesday, August 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Instituto Res. a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Aldosivi Res. 22%, so Instituto Res. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Instituto Res. and 0.7 for Aldosivi Res. (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Instituto Res. are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.55 for Aldosivi Res..

Instituto Res. vs Aldosivi Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Reserve League Predictions