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Independiente Riva. Res. vs Ferro 2 Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Thursday, August 13, 2026, 18:00

Independiente Riva. Res.

PPG 1.30 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ferro 2

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.69 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-17.3%0-23.4%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.8%1-111.8%1-25.4%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.3%2-19.5%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.5%3-15.1%3-22.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-13.0%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.7% — — —

Draw 24.3% — — —

Away win 23.0% — — —

Over 2.5 50.5% — — —

Over 3.5 29.9% — — —

BTTS 53.1% — — —

Home O1.5 47.2% — — —

Away O1.5 25.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 30%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 66%

ROI 0.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.1%

H 53% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–0 12.8%

#3 2–0 10.3%

#4 0–0 7.9%

#5 2–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Independiente Riva. Res.1.6

Ferro 20.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 29.9%

Form & verdict PPG

INDEPENDIENTE RIVA. RES. · PPG 1.30

FERRO 2 · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.69 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Independiente Riva. Res. (H) 52.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ferro 2 (A) 23.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Independiente Riva. Res. face Ferro 2 in Argentina - Reserve League on Thursday, August 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Independiente Riva. Res. a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Ferro 2 23%, so Independiente Riva. Res. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Independiente Riva. Res. and 0.9 for Ferro 2 (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Independiente Riva. Res. are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 0.80 for Ferro 2.

Independiente Riva. Res. vs Ferro 2 Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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