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Lanús Res. vs Defensa y Justicia Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Wednesday, August 12, 2026, 18:00

Lanús Res.

PPG 2.10 · HOME

UPCOMING

Defensa y Justicia Res.

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-13.2%0-22.5%0-31.3%0-4+0.7%1 1-04.8%1-17.5%1-25.8%1-33.0%1-4+1.6%2 2-05.6%2-18.7%2-26.7%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-04.3%3-16.7%3-25.2%3-32.7%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-16.8%4+-25.3%4+-32.7%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.8% — — —

Draw 22.3% — — —

Away win 28.9% — — —

Over 2.5 65.9% — — —

Over 3.5 43.0% — — —

BTTS 63.3% — — —

Home O1.5 63.0% — — —

Away O1.5 47.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -20.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.3%

H 49% / xG 2.3-1.6 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.7%

#2 1–1 7.5%

#3 2–2 6.7%

#4 3–1 6.7%

#5 1–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lanús Res.2.3

Defensa y Justicia Res.1.6

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.9% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LANÚS RES. · PPG 2.10

DEFENSA Y JUSTICIA RES. · PPG 1.36

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.78 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Lanús Res. (H) 48.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Defensa y Justicia Res. (A) 28.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Lanús Res. face Defensa y Justicia Res. in Argentina - Reserve League on Wednesday, August 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lanús Res. a 49% chance, the draw 22% and Defensa y Justicia Res. 29%, so Lanús Res. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Lanús Res. and 1.6 for Defensa y Justicia Res. (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lanús Res. are averaging 2.10 points per game versus 1.36 for Defensa y Justicia Res..

Lanús Res. vs Defensa y Justicia Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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