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San Lorenzo Res. vs Barracas Central Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Thursday, August 13, 2026, 18:00

San Lorenzo Res.

PPG 1.10 · HOME

UPCOMING

Barracas Central Res.

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.05 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-16.2%0-22.0%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.2%1-110.6%1-23.4%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.7%2-19.0%2-22.9%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.8%3-15.1%3-21.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-13.2%4+-21.0%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.0% — — —

Draw 24.6% — — —

Away win 16.4% — — —

Over 2.5 49.9% — — —

Over 3.5 28.7% — — —

BTTS 47.7% — — —

Home O1.5 49.2% — — —

Away O1.5 17.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 30%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 66%

ROI 0.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.7%

H 59% / xG 1.7-0.7 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.2%

#2 2–0 13.7%

#3 1–1 10.6%

#4 0–0 9.5%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Lorenzo Res.1.7

Barracas Central Res.0.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN LORENZO RES. · PPG 1.10

BARRACAS CENTRAL RES. · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.05 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

San Lorenzo Res. (H) 59.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Barracas Central Res. (A) 16.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

San Lorenzo Res. face Barracas Central Res. in Argentina - Reserve League on Thursday, August 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Lorenzo Res. a 59% chance, the draw 25% and Barracas Central Res. 16%, so San Lorenzo Res. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for San Lorenzo Res. and 0.7 for Barracas Central Res. (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Lorenzo Res. are averaging 1.10 points per game versus 0.60 for Barracas Central Res..

San Lorenzo Res. vs Barracas Central Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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