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Santos vs Fluminense Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Regular Season - 12 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 19:00

Santos

PPG 1.83 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Fluminense

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.4% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a clear edge.

+18.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-16.3%0-24.6%0-32.2%0-4+1.1%1 1-07.3%1-110.6%1-27.7%1-33.7%1-4+1.9%2 2-06.2%2-18.9%2-26.5%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-03.5%3-15.0%3-23.7%3-31.8%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-13.1%4+-22.3%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.2% 39.4% 2.54 +9.7%

Draw 23.5% 32.3% 3.10 -27.2%

Away win 33.2% 35.1% 2.85 -5.4%

Over 2.5 60.8% 44.4% 2.25 +36.8%

Over 3.5 38.4% 23.8% 4.20 +61.3%

BTTS 62.4% 52.6% 1.90 +18.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 68 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 51%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.4%

H 43% / xG 1.7-1.5 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.7%

#4 1–0 7.3%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Santos1.7

Fluminense1.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.8% · O3.5 PROB 38.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SANTOS · PPG 1.83

FLUMINENSE · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.83) vs P(Home)=43.2%

Win probability 1X2

Santos (H) 43.2%

ODDS 2.54 · IMPLIED 39.4% EV +9.7%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -27.2%

Fluminense (A) 33.2%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -5.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Santos face Fluminense in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Santos a 43% chance, the draw 24% and Fluminense 33%, so Santos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Santos and 1.5 for Fluminense (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Santos are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.00 for Fluminense. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +61.3%. This match finished 2-3.

Santos vs Fluminense Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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