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Coritiba vs Atletico MG Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 12 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 19:00

Coritiba

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDWW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Atletico MG

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWDW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.8%0-19.2%0-23.9%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.9%1-112.6%1-25.3%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.3%2-18.7%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.7%3-14.0%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-11.9%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% 40.7% 2.46 +21.3%

Draw 27.6% 32.3% 3.10 -14.4%

Away win 23.0% 34.0% 2.94 -32.4%

Over 2.5 38.4% 44.4% 2.25 -13.6%

Over 3.5 18.5% 23.8% 4.20 -22.3%

BTTS 42.7% 54.1% 1.85 -21.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 132 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 44%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob42.7%

H 49% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.9%

#2 1–1 12.6%

#3 0–0 10.8%

#4 2–0✓ 10.3%

#5 0–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Coritiba1.4

Atletico MG0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.4% · O3.5 PROB 18.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CORITIBA · PPG 1.00

ATLETICO MG · PPG 0.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

49%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Coritiba (H) 49.3%

ODDS 2.46 · IMPLIED 40.7% EV +21.3%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -14.4%

Atletico MG (A) 23.0%

ODDS 2.94 · IMPLIED 34.0% EV -32.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Coritiba face Atletico MG in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Coritiba a 49% chance, the draw 28% and Atletico MG 23%, so Coritiba are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Coritiba and 0.8 for Atletico MG (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Coritiba are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.50 for Atletico MG. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +21.3%. This match finished 2-0.

Coritiba vs Atletico MG Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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