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Deportes Santa Cruz vs D. Puerto Montt Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 00:30

Deportes Santa Cruz

PPG 0.88 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

D. Puerto Montt

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-19.1%0-25.8%0-32.5%0-4+1.0%1 1-09.7%1-112.4%1-27.9%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.6%2-18.5%2-25.4%2-32.3%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.0%3-13.8%3-22.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.8%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.6% 47.6% 2.10 -16.8%

Draw 26.1% 31.3% 3.20 -9.9%

Away win 34.4% 30.8% 3.25 +11.8%

Over 2.5 53.5% 46.5% 2.15 +15.0%

Over 3.5 32.3% 25.0% 4.00 +29.2%

BTTS 54.6% 54.1% 1.85 +1.0%

Home O1.5 37.4% 44.4% 2.25 -15.8%

Away O1.5 35.7% 32.3% 3.10 +10.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.6%

H 40% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0✓ 7.1%

#3 2–1 8.5%

#4 1–2 7.9%

#5 1–0 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportes Santa Cruz1.4

D. Puerto Montt1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTES SANTA CRUZ · PPG 0.88

D. PUERTO MONTT · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.09 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Deportes Santa Cruz (H) 39.6%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -16.8%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -9.9%

D. Puerto Montt (A) 34.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +11.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportes Santa Cruz face D. Puerto Montt in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportes Santa Cruz a 40% chance, the draw 26% and D. Puerto Montt 34%, so Deportes Santa Cruz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Deportes Santa Cruz and 1.3 for D. Puerto Montt (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportes Santa Cruz are averaging 0.88 points per game versus 1.25 for D. Puerto Montt. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +29.2%. This match finished 0-0.

Deportes Santa Cruz vs D. Puerto Montt Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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