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Union San Felipe vs Recoleta Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 16:30

Union San Felipe

PPG 1.71 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Recoleta

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-19.2%0-26.3%0-32.9%0-4+1.4%1 1-08.8%1-112.2%1-28.4%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.9%2-18.1%2-25.6%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.6%3-13.6%3-22.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.6%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.6% 40.8% 2.45 -3.0%

Draw 25.8% 30.8% 3.25 -9.7%

Away win 34.5% 38.5% 2.60 -10.3%

Over 2.5 53.5% 51.3% 1.95 +4.3%

Over 3.5 32.3% 29.0% 3.45 +11.4%

BTTS 54.6% 57.8% 1.73 -5.5%

Home O1.5 37.4% 42.6% 2.35 -12.1%

Away O1.5 43.7% 40.8% 2.45 +7.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.6%

A 34% / xG 1.3-1.4 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–2 8.4%

#3 0–0✓ 6.6%

#4 2–1 8.1%

#5 0–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Union San Felipe1.3

Recoleta1.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

UNION SAN FELIPE · PPG 1.71

RECOLETA · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.05 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Union San Felipe (H) 39.6%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -3.0%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -9.7%

Recoleta (A) 34.5%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -10.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Union San Felipe face Recoleta in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Union San Felipe a 40% chance, the draw 26% and Recoleta 35%, so Union San Felipe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Union San Felipe and 1.4 for Recoleta (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Union San Felipe are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.25 for Recoleta. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +11.4%. This match finished 0-0.

Union San Felipe vs Recoleta Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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