Today / USA - USL League One / Forward Madison vs Greenville Triumph

Forward Madison vs Greenville Triumph Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Thursday, August 13, 2026, 00:00

Forward Madison

PPG 2.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Greenville Triumph

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 80.3% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a clear edge.

+36.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-11.2%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-06.9%1-14.1%1-21.2%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-011.2%2-16.6%2-22.0%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-012.3%3-17.3%3-22.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-022.9%4+-113.5%4+-24.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 76.5% 57.8% 1.73 +32.4%

Draw 15.8% 27.0% 3.70 -24.9%

Away win 7.7% 25.0% 4.00 -41.5%

Over 2.5 67.3% 58.8% 1.70 +14.4%

Over 3.5 45.1% 36.4% 2.75 +24.0%

BTTS 49.2% 60.6% 1.65 -18.8%

Home O1.5 80.3% 58.8% 1.70 +36.5%

Away O1.5 16.7% 33.9% 2.95 -30.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 15.5%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 71%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob49.2%

H 76% / xG 3.3-0.6 / O2.5 67% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 12.3%

#2 2–0 11.2%

#3 4–0 10.0%

#4 3–1 7.3%

#5 2–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Forward Madison3.3

Greenville Triumph0.6

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 45.1%

Form & verdict PPG

FORWARD MADISON · PPG 2.75

GREENVILLE TRIUMPH · PPG 0.44

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.68 for Home, form 2.75 vs 0.44 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Forward Madison (H) 76.5%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV +32.4%

Draw 15.8%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -24.9%

Greenville Triumph (A) 7.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -41.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Forward Madison face Greenville Triumph in USA - USL League One on Thursday, August 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Forward Madison a 77% chance, the draw 16% and Greenville Triumph 8%, so Forward Madison are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.3 for Forward Madison and 0.6 for Greenville Triumph (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Forward Madison are averaging 2.75 points per game versus 0.44 for Greenville Triumph. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +39.3%.

Forward Madison vs Greenville Triumph Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - USL League One Predictions