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Chattanooga Red Wolves vs Union Omaha Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 23:00

Chattanooga Red Wolves

PPG 2.25 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Union Omaha

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-15.4%0-22.6%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.7%1-110.4%1-25.0%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.3%2-19.9%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.6%3-16.3%3-23.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-14.7%4+-22.3%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 47.6% 2.10 +11.7%

Draw 23.2% 27.8% 3.60 -9.9%

Away win 23.7% 34.7% 2.88 -19.1%

Over 2.5 53.5% 64.5% 1.55 -17.1%

Over 3.5 32.3% 42.0% 2.38 -23.1%

BTTS 54.6% 69.0% 1.45 -20.8%

Home O1.5 55.4% 55.6% 1.80 -0.3%

Away O1.5 28.1% 46.5% 2.15 -23.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 15.5%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.6%

H 53% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–0 10.3%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.7%

#5 0–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chattanooga Red Wolves1.9

Union Omaha1.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CHATTANOOGA RED WOLVES · PPG 2.25

UNION OMAHA · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.95 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Chattanooga Red Wolves (H) 53.2%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +11.7%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -9.9%

Union Omaha (A) 23.7%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -19.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chattanooga Red Wolves face Union Omaha in USA - USL League One on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chattanooga Red Wolves a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Union Omaha 24%, so Chattanooga Red Wolves are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Chattanooga Red Wolves and 1.0 for Union Omaha (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chattanooga Red Wolves are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.50 for Union Omaha. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +12.3%. This match finished 1-3.

Chattanooga Red Wolves vs Union Omaha Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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