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Alta vs Fort Wayne Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 03:00

Alta

PPG 1.64 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Fort Wayne

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.0% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-18.0%0-23.5%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.8%1-112.1%1-25.3%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.5%2-19.2%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.3%3-14.7%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-12.5%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.6% 42.9% 2.33 +15.6%

Draw 27.1% 28.2% 3.55 -2.3%

Away win 23.4% 38.5% 2.60 -23.5%

Over 2.5 50.3% 60.6% 1.65 -17.0%

Over 3.5 28.8% 38.5% 2.60 -15.1%

BTTS 51.0% 66.7% 1.50 -23.5%

Home O1.5 45.4% 50.0% 2.00 -9.2%

Away O1.5 23.7% 47.6% 2.10 -30.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 15.5%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.0%

H 50% / xG 1.5-0.9 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0 13.8%

#3 0–0 9.1%

#4 2–0 10.5%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alta1.5

Fort Wayne0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ALTA · PPG 1.64

FORT WAYNE · PPG 1.20

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.64 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Alta (H) 49.6%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV +15.6%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -2.3%

Fort Wayne (A) 23.4%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -23.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alta face Fort Wayne in USA - USL League One on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alta a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Fort Wayne 23%, so Alta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Alta and 0.9 for Fort Wayne (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alta are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.20 for Fort Wayne. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +0.3%. This match finished 3-0.

Alta vs Fort Wayne Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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