Today / USA - USL League One / One Knoxville vs Sarasota Paradise

One Knoxville vs Sarasota Paradise Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 23:30

One Knoxville

PPG 1.78 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Sarasota Paradise

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 64.5% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-13.4%0-21.0%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-013.0%1-17.7%1-22.3%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.7%2-18.7%2-22.6%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.1%3-16.6%3-22.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-010.6%4+-16.3%4+-21.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.5% 62.5% 1.60 +3.2%

Draw 20.7% 26.3% 3.80 -12.8%

Away win 14.8% 21.1% 4.75 -17.8%

Over 2.5 55.1% 56.5% 1.77 -2.5%

Over 3.5 33.6% 33.9% 2.95 -0.9%

BTTS 48.8% 57.1% 1.75 -14.6%

Home O1.5 62.4% 59.9% 1.67 +4.2%

Away O1.5 17.4% 29.0% 3.45 -24.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 15.5%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.8%

H 64% / xG 2.3-0.6 / O2.5 55% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.7%

#2 1–0 13.0%

#3 3–0 11.1%

#4 1–1 7.7%

#5 2–1✓ 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

One Knoxville2.3

Sarasota Paradise0.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ONE KNOXVILLE · PPG 1.78

SARASOTA PARADISE · PPG 0.56

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.66 for Home, form 1.78 vs 0.56 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

One Knoxville (H) 64.5%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV +3.2%

Draw 20.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -12.8%

Sarasota Paradise (A) 14.8%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -17.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

One Knoxville face Sarasota Paradise in USA - USL League One on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives One Knoxville a 65% chance, the draw 21% and Sarasota Paradise 15%, so One Knoxville are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for One Knoxville and 0.6 for Sarasota Paradise (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, One Knoxville are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 0.56 for Sarasota Paradise. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +4.2%. This match finished 2-1.

One Knoxville vs Sarasota Paradise Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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