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Richmond Kickers vs NY Cosmos Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Wednesday, August 5, 2026, 23:00

Richmond Kickers

PPG 1.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

NY Cosmos

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +1.04 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-14.7%0-22.4%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.5%1-19.7%1-24.9%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.8%2-19.9%2-25.1%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.7%3-16.8%3-23.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.6%4+-15.6%4+-22.9%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.5% — — —

Draw 22.3% — — —

Away win 21.1% — — —

Over 2.5 60.4% — — —

Over 3.5 37.5% — — —

BTTS 54.6% — — —

Home O1.5 61.0% — — —

Away O1.5 32.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 23.2%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.6%

H 56% / xG 2.1-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.8%

#4 1–0 9.5%

#5 3–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Richmond Kickers2.1

NY Cosmos1.0

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

RICHMOND KICKERS · PPG 1.38

NY COSMOS · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.04 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Richmond Kickers (H) 56.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

NY Cosmos (A) 21.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Richmond Kickers face NY Cosmos in USA - USL League One on Wednesday, August 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Richmond Kickers a 56% chance, the draw 22% and NY Cosmos 21%, so Richmond Kickers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Richmond Kickers and 1.0 for NY Cosmos (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Richmond Kickers are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 0.00 for NY Cosmos.

Richmond Kickers vs NY Cosmos Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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