Today / USA - USL League One / Boise vs Forward Madison

Boise vs Forward Madison Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 01:30

Boise

PPG 1.82 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Forward Madison

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-17.6%0-25.0%0-32.2%0-4+1.0%1 1-08.9%1-111.7%1-27.7%1-33.4%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.8%2-19.0%2-25.9%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.5%3-14.6%3-23.0%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.5%4+-21.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.9% 56.5% 1.77 -18.8%

Draw 25.3% 27.8% 3.60 -5.3%

Away win 28.9% 25.6% 3.90 +7.6%

Over 2.5 53.5% 56.5% 1.77 -5.3%

Over 3.5 32.3% 33.9% 2.95 -4.7%

BTTS 54.6% 59.9% 1.67 -8.8%

Home O1.5 45.4% 56.5% 1.77 -19.6%

Away O1.5 43.3% 33.3% 3.00 +29.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 15.5%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.6%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1✓ 9.0%

#3 1–2 7.7%

#4 0–0 5.8%

#5 1–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Boise1.5

Forward Madison1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BOISE · PPG 1.82

FORWARD MADISON · PPG 1.44

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.22 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Boise (H) 45.9%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -18.8%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -5.3%

Forward Madison (A) 28.9%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +7.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Boise face Forward Madison in USA - USL League One on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Boise a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Forward Madison 29%, so Boise are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Boise and 1.3 for Forward Madison (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Boise are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.44 for Forward Madison. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +29.9%. This match finished 2-1.

Boise vs Forward Madison Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - USL League One Predictions