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Forward Madison vs Westchester SC Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 00:00

Forward Madison

PPG 2.71 · HOME

UPCOMING

Westchester SC

PPG 0.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.1% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a clear edge.

+23.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-11.7%0-20.7%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-06.9%1-15.2%1-22.0%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.5%2-17.9%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.5%3-17.9%3-23.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-016.9%4+-112.7%4+-24.8%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 73.2% 61.7% 1.62 +18.6%

Draw 17.7% 25.3% 3.95 -18.1%

Away win 9.1% 22.7% 4.40 -36.0%

Over 2.5 67.0% 60.6% 1.65 +10.5%

Over 3.5 44.8% 38.5% 2.60 +16.5%

BTTS 52.6% 60.6% 1.65 -13.2%

Home O1.5 77.1% 62.5% 1.60 +23.4%

Away O1.5 20.3% 33.3% 3.00 -23.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 75%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 24.1%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 68%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.6%

H 73% / xG 3.0-0.8 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 10.5%

#2 2–0 10.5%

#3 4–0 8.0%

#4 3–1 7.9%

#5 2–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Forward Madison3.0

Westchester SC0.8

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FORWARD MADISON · PPG 2.71

WESTCHESTER SC · PPG 0.22

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.27 for Home, form 2.71 vs 0.22 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Forward Madison (H) 73.2%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV +18.6%

Draw 17.7%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -18.1%

Westchester SC (A) 9.1%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -36.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Forward Madison face Westchester SC in USA - USL League One on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Forward Madison a 73% chance, the draw 18% and Westchester SC 9%, so Forward Madison are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Forward Madison and 0.8 for Westchester SC (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Forward Madison are averaging 2.71 points per game versus 0.22 for Westchester SC. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +31.4%.

Forward Madison vs Westchester SC Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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