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Naples vs Alta Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Wednesday, August 5, 2026, 23:30

Naples

PPG 1.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

Alta

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.22, combined xG 2.43 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-19.7%0-25.4%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.7%1-112.9%1-27.1%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.7%2-18.5%2-24.7%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.4%3-13.8%3-22.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.7%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.2% — — —

Draw 26.9% — — —

Away win 30.9% — — —

Over 2.5 53.4% — — —

Over 3.5 32.3% — — —

BTTS 54.6% — — —

Home O1.5 37.4% — — —

Away O1.5 35.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 23.2%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 42% / xG 1.3-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 8.8%

#3 1–0 11.7%

#4 2–1 8.5%

#5 0–1 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Naples1.3

Alta1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

NAPLES · PPG 1.44

ALTA · PPG 1.22

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.22, combined xG 2.43 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Naples (H) 42.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Alta (A) 30.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Naples face Alta in USA - USL League One on Wednesday, August 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Naples a 42% chance, the draw 27% and Alta 31%, so Naples are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Naples and 1.1 for Alta (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Naples are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.22 for Alta.

Naples vs Alta Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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