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NY Cosmos vs Spokane Velocity Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 23:00

NY Cosmos

PPG 1.22 · HOME

UPCOMING

Spokane Velocity

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-19.3%0-25.7%0-32.4%0-4+0.9%1 1-010.2%1-112.6%1-27.7%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.9%2-18.5%2-25.2%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.1%3-13.8%3-22.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.7%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.2% 25.3% 3.95 +70.6%

Draw 27.6% 27.4% 3.65 +0.4%

Away win 29.2% 57.1% 1.75 -29.3%

Over 2.5 50.3% 60.6% 1.65 -17.0%

Over 3.5 28.8% 38.5% 2.60 -15.1%

BTTS 53.1% 63.7% 1.57 -16.6%

Home O1.5 37.4% 36.4% 2.75 +2.9%

Away O1.5 35.7% 59.9% 1.67 -40.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 15.5%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob53.1%

H 43% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 7.6%

#3 2–1 8.5%

#4 1–0 10.2%

#5 1–2 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

NY Cosmos1.3

Spokane Velocity1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

NY COSMOS · PPG 1.22

SPOKANE VELOCITY · PPG 0.71

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.12 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

NY Cosmos (H) 43.2%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +70.6%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +0.4%

Spokane Velocity (A) 29.2%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -29.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

NY Cosmos face Spokane Velocity in USA - USL League One on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives NY Cosmos a 43% chance, the draw 28% and Spokane Velocity 29%, so NY Cosmos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for NY Cosmos and 1.2 for Spokane Velocity (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, NY Cosmos are averaging 1.22 points per game versus 0.71 for Spokane Velocity. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +26.6%.

NY Cosmos vs Spokane Velocity Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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