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Portland Hearts of Pine vs Corpus Christi Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 23:00

Portland Hearts of Pine

PPG 1.50 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Corpus Christi

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 61.1% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+10.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-14.7%0-22.0%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.9%1-19.6%1-24.2%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.3%2-19.9%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.7%3-16.8%3-23.0%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.4%4+-15.6%4+-22.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.5% 51.3% 1.95 +10.2%

Draw 22.3% 28.2% 3.55 -12.5%

Away win 21.1% 29.9% 3.35 -17.6%

Over 2.5 57.6% 58.8% 1.70 -2.1%

Over 3.5 34.9% 36.4% 2.75 -4.0%

BTTS 53.2% 63.7% 1.57 -16.5%

Home O1.5 61.1% 55.6% 1.80 +10.0%

Away O1.5 23.4% 38.5% 2.60 -23.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 15.5%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.2%

H 56% / xG 2.1-0.9 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.3%

#2 1–1 9.6%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.9%

#5 3–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Portland Hearts of Pine2.1

Corpus Christi0.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.6% · O3.5 PROB 34.9%

Form & verdict PPG

PORTLAND HEARTS OF PINE · PPG 1.50

CORPUS CHRISTI · PPG 0.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.18 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Portland Hearts of Pine (H) 56.5%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +10.2%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -12.5%

Corpus Christi (A) 21.1%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -17.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Portland Hearts of Pine face Corpus Christi in USA - USL League One on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Portland Hearts of Pine a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Corpus Christi 21%, so Portland Hearts of Pine are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Portland Hearts of Pine and 0.9 for Corpus Christi (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Portland Hearts of Pine are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.50 for Corpus Christi. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +15.2%. This match finished 0-2.

Portland Hearts of Pine vs Corpus Christi Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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