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Charlotte Independence vs Greenville Triumph Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 23:00

Charlotte Independence

PPG 2.67 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Greenville Triumph

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 78.3% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a clear edge.

+17.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-11.2%0-20.5%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-05.1%1-14.2%1-21.7%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-08.6%2-17.0%2-22.9%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.7%3-17.9%3-23.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-019.3%4+-115.8%4+-26.4%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.6% 59.5% 1.68 +13.6%

Draw 16.8% 25.3% 3.95 -20.2%

Away win 15.6% 25.3% 3.95 -23.0%

Over 2.5 67.6% 69.0% 1.45 -2.0%

Over 3.5 47.4% 46.5% 2.15 +1.9%

BTTS 54.6% 69.0% 1.45 -20.8%

Home O1.5 78.3% 66.7% 1.50 +17.4%

Away O1.5 20.4% 40.8% 2.45 -30.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 15.5%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)3.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob54.6%

H 68% / xG 3.4-0.8 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 9.7%

#2 2–0 8.6%

#3 4–0 8.2%

#4 3–1 7.9%

#5 2–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Charlotte Independence3.4

Greenville Triumph0.8

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.6% · O3.5 PROB 47.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CHARLOTTE INDEPENDENCE · PPG 2.67

GREENVILLE TRIUMPH · PPG 0.50

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.56 for Home, form 2.67 vs 0.50 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Charlotte Independence (H) 67.6%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV +13.6%

Draw 16.8%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -20.2%

Greenville Triumph (A) 15.6%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -23.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Charlotte Independence face Greenville Triumph in USA - USL League One on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Charlotte Independence a 68% chance, the draw 17% and Greenville Triumph 16%, so Charlotte Independence are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.4 for Charlotte Independence and 0.8 for Greenville Triumph (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Charlotte Independence are averaging 2.67 points per game versus 0.50 for Greenville Triumph. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +22.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Charlotte Independence vs Greenville Triumph Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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