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Almeria vs Malaga Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Regular Season - 36 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 19:00

Almeria

PPG 2.24 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Malaga

PPG 1.24 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 74.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a clear edge.

+20.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-13.3%0-22.6%0-31.4%0-4+0.8%1 1-04.6%1-17.5%1-26.0%1-33.2%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.3%2-18.5%2-26.9%2-33.7%2-4+2.1%3 3-04.0%3-16.5%3-25.2%3-32.8%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-16.4%4+-25.1%4+-32.7%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.0% 52.9% 1.89 +0.2%

Draw 20.0% 26.7% 3.75 -25.0%

Away win 27.0% 27.4% 3.65 -1.5%

Over 2.5 74.6% 61.7% 1.62 +20.8%

Over 3.5 54.6% 39.2% 2.55 +39.2%

BTTS 71.9% 64.5% 1.55 +11.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob71.9%

H 53% / xG 2.3-1.6 / O2.5 75% / BTTS 72%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.5%

#2 1–1 7.5%

#3 2–2 6.9%

#4 3–1 6.5%

#5 1–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Almeria2.3

Malaga1.6

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 74.6% · O3.5 PROB 54.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ALMERIA · PPG 2.24

MALAGA · PPG 1.24

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.24) vs P(Home)=53.0%

Win probability 1X2

Almeria (H) 53.0%

ODDS 1.89 · IMPLIED 52.9% EV +0.2%

Draw 20.0%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -25.0%

Malaga (A) 27.0%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -1.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Almeria face Malaga in Spain - Segunda División on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Almeria a 53% chance, the draw 20% and Malaga 27%, so Almeria are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Almeria and 1.6 for Malaga (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 72% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Almeria are averaging 2.24 points per game versus 1.24 for Malaga. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +39.2%. This match finished 3-2.

Almeria vs Malaga Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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