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Union Espanola vs Antofagasta Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 19 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 22:00

Union Espanola

PPG 2.22 · HOME

UPCOMING

Antofagasta

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.60 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-16.7%0-23.7%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.4%1-111.4%1-26.2%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.8%2-19.7%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.0%3-15.5%3-23.0%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-13.4%4+-21.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.7% — — —

Draw 25.0% — — —

Away win 24.4% — — —

Over 2.5 53.5% — — —

Over 3.5 32.8% — — —

BTTS 54.6% — — —

Home O1.5 49.2% — — —

Away O1.5 35.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 7.4%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 51% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.8%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 0–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Union Espanola1.7

Antofagasta1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

UNION ESPANOLA · PPG 2.22

ANTOFAGASTA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.60 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Union Espanola (H) 50.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Antofagasta (A) 24.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Union Espanola face Antofagasta in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Union Espanola a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Antofagasta 24%, so Union Espanola are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Union Espanola and 1.1 for Antofagasta (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Union Espanola are averaging 2.22 points per game versus 1.00 for Antofagasta.

Union Espanola vs Antofagasta Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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