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Santiago Wanderers vs San Marcos de Arica Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 19:00

Santiago Wanderers

PPG 1.88 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

San Marcos de Arica

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-18.4%0-24.1%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.6%1-112.4%1-26.1%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.3%2-19.2%2-24.5%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.6%3-14.5%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.3%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.5% 42.9% 2.33 +17.7%

Draw 25.2% 31.3% 3.20 -11.6%

Away win 24.3% 35.1% 2.85 -18.4%

Over 2.5 52.1% 48.8% 2.05 +6.8%

Over 3.5 29.7% 27.0% 3.70 +5.9%

BTTS 53.1% 55.6% 1.80 -4.4%

Home O1.5 45.4% 42.6% 2.35 +6.7%

Away O1.5 29.4% 37.0% 2.70 -12.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.1%

H 50% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.4%

#2 1–0 12.6%

#3 0–0 8.5%

#4 2–0 9.3%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Santiago Wanderers1.5

San Marcos de Arica1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.1% · O3.5 PROB 29.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SANTIAGO WANDERERS · PPG 1.88

SAN MARCOS DE ARICA · PPG 1.62

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.50, combined xG 2.47 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Santiago Wanderers (H) 50.5%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV +17.7%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -11.6%

San Marcos de Arica (A) 24.3%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -18.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Santiago Wanderers face San Marcos de Arica in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Santiago Wanderers a 51% chance, the draw 25% and San Marcos de Arica 24%, so Santiago Wanderers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Santiago Wanderers and 1.0 for San Marcos de Arica (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Santiago Wanderers are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.62 for San Marcos de Arica. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +8.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Santiago Wanderers vs San Marcos de Arica Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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