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Cobreloa vs Deportes Iquique Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 21:30

Cobreloa

PPG 2.78 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Deportes Iquique

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 70.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+27.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-12.1%0-20.8%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-07.6%1-16.0%1-22.4%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.7%2-18.5%2-23.3%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.1%3-18.0%3-23.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-014.3%4+-111.3%4+-24.4%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.8% 57.1% 1.75 +18.6%

Draw 16.9% 28.2% 3.55 -24.0%

Away win 15.3% 24.4% 4.10 -22.4%

Over 2.5 67.2% 55.6% 1.80 +21.0%

Over 3.5 44.0% 33.3% 3.00 +32.0%

BTTS 54.6% 58.8% 1.70 -7.2%

Home O1.5 70.6% 55.6% 1.80 +27.1%

Away O1.5 19.6% 32.3% 3.10 -23.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob54.6%

H 68% / xG 2.8-0.8 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.7%

#2 3–0 10.1%

#3 2–1 8.5%

#4 3–1 8.0%

#5 4–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cobreloa2.8

Deportes Iquique0.8

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 44.0%

Form & verdict PPG

COBRELOA · PPG 2.78

DEPORTES IQUIQUE · PPG 0.38

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.04 for Home, form 2.78 vs 0.38 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Cobreloa (H) 67.8%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV +18.6%

Draw 16.9%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -24.0%

Deportes Iquique (A) 15.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -22.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cobreloa face Deportes Iquique in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cobreloa a 68% chance, the draw 17% and Deportes Iquique 15%, so Cobreloa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Cobreloa and 0.8 for Deportes Iquique (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cobreloa are averaging 2.78 points per game versus 0.38 for Deportes Iquique. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +42.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Cobreloa vs Deportes Iquique Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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