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Juventus vs Bologna Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Matchday 33 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 18:45

Juventus

PPG 2.06 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWLD

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Bologna

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWWD

// Model verdict

Home 67% chance

Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 68.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-15.0%0-22.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.7%1-19.9%1-24.2%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.7%2-19.8%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.7%3-16.5%3-22.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.0%4+-15.1%4+-22.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.1% 68.5% 1.46 -6.4%

Draw 20.8% 22.0% 4.55 -5.4%

Away win 15.1% 16.7% 6.00 -9.4%

Over 2.5 53.7% 57.8% 1.73 -7.1%

Over 3.5 31.4% 35.7% 2.80 -12.1%

BTTS 49.1% 52.6% 1.90 -6.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -36.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.1%

H 64% / xG 2.0-0.8 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 11.7%

#2 2–0✓ 11.7%

#3 1–1 9.9%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 3–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Juventus2.0

Bologna0.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.4%

Form & verdict PPG

JUVENTUS · PPG 2.06

BOLOGNA · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

67%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.06) > Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Juventus (H) 64.1%

ODDS 1.46 · IMPLIED 68.5% EV -6.4%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 4.55 · IMPLIED 22.0% EV -5.4%

Bologna (A) 15.1%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -9.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Juventus face Bologna in Italy - Serie A on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Juventus a 64% chance, the draw 21% and Bologna 15%, so Juventus are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Juventus and 0.8 for Bologna (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Juventus are averaging 2.06 points per game versus 1.75 for Bologna. This match finished 2-0.

Juventus vs Bologna Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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