Sorrento vs Atalanta B Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Italy - Serie C - Girone C Girone C - 37 Stadio Comunale Alfredo Viviani· Potenza Sunday, April 19, 2026 18:30

Sorrento PPG 1.28

1-1 HIT MostLikelyScore

Atalanta B PPG 1.11

Over3.5· +5.0% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Sorrento face Atalanta B in Italy - Serie C - Girone C on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sorrento a 45% chance, the draw 24% and Atalanta B 31%, so Sorrento are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Sorrento and 1.4 for Atalanta B (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sorrento are averaging 1.28 points per game versus 1.11 for Atalanta B. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.0%. This match finished 1-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 44.7%

Odds: 2.05 EV: -8.4%

Draw 23.9%

Odds: 3.40 EV: -18.7%

Away 31.4%

Odds: 3.10 EV: -2.7%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 58.0% Odds: 1.80 +4.4%

Over 3.5 35.6% Odds: 2.95 +5.0%

BTTS 60.1% Odds: 1.62 -2.6%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✔

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 1-2 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Sorrento

1.66

Atalanta B

1.36

Model SuggestionBTTS -2.6% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-2.6%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.28), Away AVERAGE (1.11)