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Sorrento vs Atalanta B Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Girone C - 37 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 18:30

Sorrento

PPG 1.28 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Atalanta B

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.1% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-16.6%0-24.5%0-32.0%0-4+0.9%1 1-08.1%1-111.0%1-27.5%1-33.4%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.8%2-19.2%2-26.2%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.7%3-15.1%3-23.4%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-13.1%4+-22.1%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.7% 48.8% 2.05 -8.4%

Draw 23.9% 29.4% 3.40 -18.7%

Away win 31.4% 32.3% 3.10 -2.7%

Over 2.5 58.0% 55.6% 1.80 +4.4%

Over 3.5 35.6% 33.9% 2.95 +5.0%

BTTS 60.1% 61.7% 1.62 -2.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 24%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob60.1%

H 45% / xG 1.7-1.4 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.0%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–0 8.1%

#4 1–2 7.5%

#5 2–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sorrento1.7

Atalanta B1.4

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.0% · O3.5 PROB 35.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SORRENTO · PPG 1.28

ATALANTA B · PPG 1.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.28), Away AVERAGE (1.11)

Win probability 1X2

Sorrento (H) 44.7%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -8.4%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -18.7%

Atalanta B (A) 31.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -2.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sorrento face Atalanta B in Italy - Serie C - Girone C on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sorrento a 45% chance, the draw 24% and Atalanta B 31%, so Sorrento are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Sorrento and 1.4 for Atalanta B (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sorrento are averaging 1.28 points per game versus 1.11 for Atalanta B. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.0%. This match finished 1-1.

Sorrento vs Atalanta B Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Match Preview & Prediction

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