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Siracusa vs Cavese Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Girone C - 37 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 18:30

Siracusa

PPG 1.56 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Cavese

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 57.1% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a clear edge.

+17.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-16.3%0-22.9%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.1%1-111.1%1-25.1%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.6%2-19.8%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.2%3-15.7%3-22.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-13.7%4+-21.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.1% 48.8% 2.05 +17.1%

Draw 23.4% 32.3% 3.10 -27.5%

Away win 19.5% 28.2% 3.55 -30.8%

Over 2.5 50.1% 46.5% 2.15 +7.7%

Over 3.5 28.1% 26.0% 3.85 +8.2%

BTTS 49.8% 54.6% 1.83 -8.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 24%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.8%

H 57% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 12.1%

#2 1–1✓ 11.1%

#3 2–0 10.6%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Siracusa1.8

Cavese0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SIRACUSA · PPG 1.56

CAVESE · PPG 0.89

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.56) > Away POOR (0.89)

Win probability 1X2

Siracusa (H) 57.1%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +17.1%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -27.5%

Cavese (A) 19.5%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -30.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Siracusa face Cavese in Italy - Serie C - Girone C on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Siracusa a 57% chance, the draw 23% and Cavese 20%, so Siracusa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Siracusa and 0.9 for Cavese (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Siracusa are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 0.89 for Cavese. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +17.1%. This match finished 1-1.

Siracusa vs Cavese Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Match Preview & Prediction

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