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Salernitana vs Picerno Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Girone C - 37 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 18:30

Salernitana

PPG 1.83 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Picerno

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 68.3% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a clear edge.

+12.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-14.1%0-21.7%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.8%1-18.9%1-23.7%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.8%2-19.7%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.5%3-17.0%3-22.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-07.7%4+-16.4%4+-22.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.3% 60.6% 1.65 +12.7%

Draw 18.8% 29.4% 3.40 -36.1%

Away win 12.9% 19.6% 5.10 -34.2%

Over 2.5 57.7% 50.0% 2.00 +15.4%

Over 3.5 35.3% 28.6% 3.50 +23.5%

BTTS 49.8% 54.1% 1.85 -7.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 24%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.8%

H 68% / xG 2.2-0.8 / O2.5 58% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.8%

#2 1–0 10.8%

#3 2–1✓ 9.7%

#4 1–1 8.9%

#5 3–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Salernitana2.2

Picerno0.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.7% · O3.5 PROB 35.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SALERNITANA · PPG 1.83

PICERNO · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.83), Away AVERAGE (1.00) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Salernitana (H) 68.3%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV +12.7%

Draw 18.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -36.1%

Picerno (A) 12.9%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV -34.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Salernitana face Picerno in Italy - Serie C - Girone C on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Salernitana a 68% chance, the draw 19% and Picerno 13%, so Salernitana are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Salernitana and 0.8 for Picerno (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Salernitana are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.00 for Picerno. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +23.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Salernitana vs Picerno Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Match Preview & Prediction

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