Today / Italy - Serie C - Girone C / Monopoli vs Foggia

Monopoli vs Foggia Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Girone C - 37 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 18:30

Monopoli

PPG 1.67 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Foggia

PPG 0.39 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 70.8% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a clear edge.

+45.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-14.6%0-21.2%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-016.8%1-18.8%1-22.3%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-016.0%2-18.4%2-22.2%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.2%3-15.3%3-21.4%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-07.5%4+-13.9%4+-21.0%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.8% 48.8% 2.05 +45.1%

Draw 20.0% 33.3% 3.00 -40.0%

Away win 9.2% 27.8% 3.60 -66.9%

Over 2.5 43.9% 43.5% 2.30 +1.0%

Over 3.5 22.8% 23.8% 4.20 -4.2%

BTTS 34.6% 51.8% 1.93 -33.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 24%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob34.6%

H 71% / xG 1.9-0.5 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 35%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 16.8%

#2 2–0 16.0%

#3 3–0 10.2%

#4 0–0 8.8%

#5 1–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Monopoli1.9

Foggia0.5

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.9% · O3.5 PROB 22.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MONOPOLI · PPG 1.67

FOGGIA · PPG 0.39

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.67), Away POOR (0.39) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Monopoli (H) 70.8%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +45.1%

Draw 20.0%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -40.0%

Foggia (A) 9.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -66.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Monopoli face Foggia in Italy - Serie C - Girone C on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Monopoli a 71% chance, the draw 20% and Foggia 9%, so Monopoli are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Monopoli and 0.5 for Foggia (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 35% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Monopoli are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.39 for Foggia. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +45.1%. This match finished 1-0.

Monopoli vs Foggia Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie C - Girone C Predictions