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Latina vs Casertana Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Girone C · Matchday 37 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 18:30

Latina

PPG 1.22 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLWW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Casertana

PPG 1.39 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.4%0-113.6%0-27.4%0-32.7%0-4+0.9%1 1-012.4%1-113.5%1-27.3%1-32.7%1-4+0.9%2 2-06.2%2-16.7%2-23.7%2-31.3%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.0%3-12.2%3-21.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.6% 39.2% 2.55 -16.9%

Draw 30.1% 34.7% 2.88 -13.3%

Away win 37.4% 36.4% 2.75 +2.9%

Over 2.5 34.6% 42.6% 2.35 -18.7%

Over 3.5 15.8% 22.2% 4.50 -28.9%

BTTS 41.8% 52.6% 1.90 -20.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob41.8%

D 30% / xG 1.0-1.1 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 13.6%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 0–0 12.4%

#4 1–0 12.4%

#5 0–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Latina1.0

Casertana1.1

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.6% · O3.5 PROB 15.8%

Form & verdict PPG

LATINA · PPG 1.22

CASERTANA · PPG 1.39

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.22), Away AVERAGE (1.39)

Win probability 1X2

Latina (H) 32.6%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -16.9%

Draw 30.1%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -13.3%

Casertana (A) 37.4%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +2.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Latina face Casertana in Italy - Serie C - Girone C on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Latina a 33% chance, the draw 30% and Casertana 37%, so Casertana are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Latina and 1.1 for Casertana (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Latina are averaging 1.22 points per game versus 1.39 for Casertana. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +2.9%. This match finished 2-0.

Latina vs Casertana Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Match Preview & Prediction

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