Today / Finland - Ykkonen / TPV vs SalPa

TPV vs SalPa Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Group Stage ·Tuesday, August 11, 2026, 15:30

TPV

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

SalPa

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-16.2%0-24.6%0-32.3%0-4+1.2%1 1-07.0%1-110.5%1-27.8%1-33.9%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.9%2-18.8%2-26.6%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-03.3%3-15.0%3-23.7%3-31.8%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-13.1%4+-22.3%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.7% 34.5% 2.90 +38.3%

Draw 23.0% 29.4% 3.40 -13.1%

Away win 29.3% 47.6% 2.10 -23.1%

Over 2.5 63.1% 73.5% 1.36 -14.2%

Over 3.5 38.8% 54.6% 1.83 -29.0%

BTTS 61.6% 74.1% 1.35 -16.8%

Home O1.5 49.2% 54.6% 1.83 -10.0%

Away O1.5 46.8% 63.7% 1.57 -26.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.6%

H 48% / xG 1.7-1.5 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 2–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

TPV1.7

SalPa1.5

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 38.8%

Form & verdict PPG

TPV · PPG 1.67

SALPA · PPG 1.33

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.19 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

TPV (H) 47.7%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +38.3%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -13.1%

SalPa (A) 29.3%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -23.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

TPV face SalPa in Finland - Ykkonen on Tuesday, August 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives TPV a 48% chance, the draw 23% and SalPa 29%, so TPV are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for TPV and 1.5 for SalPa (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, TPV are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.33 for SalPa. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +12.0%.

TPV vs SalPa Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Match Preview & Prediction

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