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PKKU vs Inter Turku II Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Group Stage ·Tuesday, August 11, 2026, 15:30

PKKU

PPG 1.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

Inter Turku II

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.4% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-12.4%0-21.6%0-30.7%0-4+0.3%1 1-04.8%1-16.5%1-24.4%1-32.0%1-4+0.9%2 2-06.4%2-18.6%2-25.9%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-05.7%3-17.7%3-25.2%3-32.3%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-07.2%4+-19.7%4+-26.6%4+-33.0%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.6% 66.7% 1.50 -16.6%

Draw 20.6% 21.7% 4.60 -3.1%

Away win 23.8% 22.2% 4.50 +4.3%

Over 2.5 67.4% 78.1% 1.28 -13.7%

Over 3.5 47.2% 59.9% 1.67 -21.2%

BTTS 63.3% 74.1% 1.35 -14.5%

Home O1.5 63.4% 76.9% 1.30 -17.6%

Away O1.5 42.6% 44.4% 2.25 -4.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 70%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.3%

H 56% / xG 2.7-1.4 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.6%

#2 3–1 7.7%

#3 1–1 6.5%

#4 2–0 6.4%

#5 2–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

PKKU2.7

Inter Turku II1.4

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.4% · O3.5 PROB 47.2%

Form & verdict PPG

PKKU · PPG 1.44

INTER TURKU II · PPG 1.22

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.31 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

PKKU (H) 55.6%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -16.6%

Draw 20.6%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -3.1%

Inter Turku II (A) 23.8%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +4.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

PKKU face Inter Turku II in Finland - Ykkonen on Tuesday, August 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives PKKU a 56% chance, the draw 21% and Inter Turku II 24%, so PKKU are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for PKKU and 1.4 for Inter Turku II (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, PKKU are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.22 for Inter Turku II. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +4.0%.

PKKU vs Inter Turku II Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Match Preview & Prediction

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