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Rops vs KuPS Akatemia Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Group Stage ·Tuesday, August 11, 2026, 15:30

Rops

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

KuPS Akatemia

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 80.3% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-11.5%0-20.9%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-04.3%1-14.8%1-22.7%1-31.0%1-4+0.4%2 2-06.8%2-17.7%2-24.3%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.2%3-18.1%3-24.6%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-012.7%4+-114.3%4+-28.1%4+-33.0%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.9% 76.9% 1.30 -11.7%

Draw 16.6% 20.0% 5.00 -10.2%

Away win 15.5% 15.4% 6.50 +0.4%

Over 2.5 71.6% 80.0% 1.25 -10.5%

Over 3.5 52.2% 63.7% 1.57 -18.1%

BTTS 63.3% 71.4% 1.40 -11.4%

Home O1.5 80.3% 82.0% 1.22 -2.0%

Away O1.5 34.7% 38.2% 2.62 -9.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 70%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob63.3%

H 68% / xG 3.2-1.1 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 8.1%

#2 2–1 7.7%

#3 3–0 7.2%

#4 2–0 6.8%

#5 4–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rops3.2

KuPS Akatemia1.1

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.6% · O3.5 PROB 52.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ROPS · PPG 2.00

KUPS AKATEMIA · PPG 0.44

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.05 for Home, form 2.00 vs 0.44 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Rops (H) 67.9%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -11.7%

Draw 16.6%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -10.2%

KuPS Akatemia (A) 15.5%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +0.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rops face KuPS Akatemia in Finland - Ykkonen on Tuesday, August 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rops a 68% chance, the draw 17% and KuPS Akatemia 16%, so Rops are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for Rops and 1.1 for KuPS Akatemia (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rops are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.44 for KuPS Akatemia. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +1.6%.

Rops vs KuPS Akatemia Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Match Preview & Prediction

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