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FC jazz vs OLS Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 15:30

FC jazz

PPG 0.89 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

OLS

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.8% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-17.9%0-26.1%0-33.2%0-4+1.7%1 1-07.3%1-111.3%1-28.7%1-34.5%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.2%2-18.0%2-26.2%2-33.2%2-4+1.7%3 3-02.5%3-13.8%3-23.0%3-31.5%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.9%4+-21.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.5% 35.7% 2.80 +16.2%

Draw 24.3% 27.8% 3.60 -7.5%

Away win 34.2% 48.8% 2.05 -29.9%

Over 2.5 60.4% 75.2% 1.33 -19.7%

Over 3.5 37.2% 55.6% 1.80 -33.0%

BTTS 61.8% 75.2% 1.33 -17.8%

Home O1.5 45.4% 55.6% 1.80 -18.3%

Away O1.5 48.2% 65.4% 1.53 -26.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.8%

A 34% / xG 1.4-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.3%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 8.0%

#4 0–0 5.1%

#5 0–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC jazz1.4

OLS1.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 37.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FC JAZZ · PPG 0.89

OLS · PPG 1.11

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.12 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FC jazz (H) 41.5%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +16.2%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.5%

OLS (A) 34.2%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -29.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC jazz face OLS in Finland - Ykkonen on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC jazz a 42% chance, the draw 24% and OLS 34%, so FC jazz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for FC jazz and 1.5 for OLS (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC jazz are averaging 0.89 points per game versus 1.11 for OLS. This match finished 1-1.

FC jazz vs OLS Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Match Preview & Prediction

More Finland - Ykkonen Predictions