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JJK vs Tampere United Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Group Stage ·Tuesday, August 11, 2026, 15:30

JJK

PPG 1.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tampere United

PPG 2.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-15.9%0-26.3%0-34.4%0-4+3.9%1 1-04.0%1-18.6%1-29.1%1-36.5%1-4+5.7%2 2-02.9%2-16.3%2-26.7%2-34.7%2-4+4.1%3 3-01.4%3-13.0%3-23.2%3-32.3%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.5%4+-21.6%4+-31.2%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.8% 33.3% 3.00 +1.4%

Draw 22.0% 27.8% 3.60 -12.5%

Away win 44.2% 51.3% 1.95 -13.8%

Over 2.5 67.3% 71.4% 1.40 -5.8%

Over 3.5 47.2% 52.4% 1.91 -9.8%

BTTS 63.3% 73.5% 1.36 -13.9%

Home O1.5 45.1% 50.0% 2.00 -9.8%

Away O1.5 56.5% 61.7% 1.62 -8.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob63.3%

A 44% / xG 1.5-2.1 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.6%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 2–2 6.7%

#4 1–3 6.5%

#5 2–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

JJK1.5

Tampere United2.1

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 47.2%

Form & verdict PPG

JJK · PPG 1.44

TAMPERE UNITED · PPG 2.44

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.67 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

JJK (H) 33.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +1.4%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -12.5%

Tampere United (A) 44.2%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -13.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

JJK face Tampere United in Finland - Ykkonen on Tuesday, August 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives JJK a 34% chance, the draw 22% and Tampere United 44%, so Tampere United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for JJK and 2.1 for Tampere United (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, JJK are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 2.44 for Tampere United. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +0.1%.

JJK vs Tampere United Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Match Preview & Prediction

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