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OLS vs TPV Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Group Stage ·Wednesday, August 5, 2026, 15:00

OLS

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

TPV

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.0% vs bookmaker-implied 78.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-13.5%0-21.9%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-07.7%1-18.2%1-24.4%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.1%2-19.7%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.1%3-17.6%3-24.0%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-07.3%4+-17.8%4+-24.2%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.5% 70.4% 1.42 -19.8%

Draw 22.3% 22.2% 4.50 +0.2%

Away win 21.1% 19.0% 5.25 +6.5%

Over 2.5 64.0% 78.7% 1.27 -18.7%

Over 3.5 43.0% 58.8% 1.70 -26.9%

BTTS 61.8% 73.5% 1.36 -16.0%

Home O1.5 62.4% — — —

Away O1.5 35.0% 42.0% 2.38 -16.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 35%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.8%

H 56% / xG 2.4-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.7%

#2 1–1 8.2%

#3 2–0 9.1%

#4 3–1 7.6%

#5 3–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

OLS2.4

TPV1.1

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.0% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

OLS · PPG 2.00

TPV · PPG 0.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.29 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

OLS (H) 56.5%

ODDS 1.42 · IMPLIED 70.4% EV -19.8%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +0.2%

TPV (A) 21.1%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +6.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

OLS face TPV in Finland - Ykkonen on Wednesday, August 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives OLS a 56% chance, the draw 22% and TPV 21%, so OLS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for OLS and 1.1 for TPV (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, OLS are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.50 for TPV.

OLS vs TPV Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Match Preview & Prediction

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