Today / Finland - Ykkonen / SalPa vs JJK

SalPa vs JJK Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Group Stage ·Wednesday, August 5, 2026, 15:30

SalPa

PPG 1.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

JJK

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 69.6% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-12.8%0-22.6%0-31.6%0-4+1.1%1 1-03.5%1-16.5%1-26.0%1-33.7%1-4+2.6%2 2-04.1%2-17.6%2-27.1%2-34.4%2-4+3.1%3 3-03.2%3-16.0%3-25.6%3-33.4%3-4+2.4%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-16.2%4+-25.7%4+-33.5%4+-4+2.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.4% 55.6% 1.80 -11.1%

Draw 22.0% 25.1% 3.98 -7.5%

Away win 28.5% 30.3% 3.30 -3.6%

Over 2.5 67.9% 80.6% 1.24 -15.8%

Over 3.5 47.5% 58.5% 1.71 -18.8%

BTTS 69.6% 78.1% 1.28 -10.9%

Home O1.5 62.4% 70.4% 1.42 -11.4%

Away O1.5 54.7% 53.2% 1.88 +2.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 35%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob69.6%

H 49% / xG 2.4-1.9 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.6%

#2 1–1 6.5%

#3 2–2 7.1%

#4 1–2 6.0%

#5 3–1 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SalPa2.4

JJK1.9

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.9% · O3.5 PROB 47.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SALPA · PPG 1.75

JJK · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.50 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

SalPa (H) 49.4%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -11.1%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.98 · IMPLIED 25.1% EV -7.5%

JJK (A) 28.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -3.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

SalPa face JJK in Finland - Ykkonen on Wednesday, August 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SalPa a 49% chance, the draw 22% and JJK 28%, so SalPa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for SalPa and 1.9 for JJK (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SalPa are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.50 for JJK. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +2.8%.

SalPa vs JJK Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Match Preview & Prediction

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