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Rops vs FC jazz Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Group Stage ·Wednesday, August 5, 2026, 15:30

Rops

PPG 2.12 · HOME

UPCOMING

FC jazz

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-14.6%0-22.5%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.7%1-19.5%1-25.2%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.1%2-19.9%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.3%3-16.9%3-23.7%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-05.3%4+-15.8%4+-23.1%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.0% 72.5% 1.38 -24.1%

Draw 22.1% 21.3% 4.70 +2.3%

Away win 22.9% 17.9% 5.60 +16.9%

Over 2.5 63.6% 78.1% 1.28 -18.6%

Over 3.5 40.5% 58.1% 1.72 -30.3%

BTTS 61.8% — — —

Home O1.5 61.4% — — —

Away O1.5 35.4% 39.2% 2.55 -9.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 35%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.8%

H 55% / xG 2.1-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.1%

#4 1–0 8.7%

#5 3–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rops2.1

FC jazz1.1

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ROPS · PPG 2.12

FC JAZZ · PPG 2.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.99 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Rops (H) 55.0%

ODDS 1.38 · IMPLIED 72.5% EV -24.1%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 4.70 · IMPLIED 21.3% EV +2.3%

FC jazz (A) 22.9%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +16.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rops face FC jazz in Finland - Ykkonen on Wednesday, August 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rops a 55% chance, the draw 22% and FC jazz 23%, so Rops are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Rops and 1.1 for FC jazz (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rops are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 2.00 for FC jazz.

Rops vs FC jazz Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Match Preview & Prediction

More Finland - Ykkonen Predictions