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KPV-j vs VJS Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 13:00

KPV-j

PPG 0.78 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

VJS

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-16.4%0-28.3%0-37.1%0-4+8.6%1 1-02.8%1-17.1%1-29.2%1-37.9%1-4+9.5%2 2-01.5%2-14.0%2-25.1%2-34.4%2-4+5.3%3 3-00.6%3-11.5%3-21.9%3-31.6%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.5%4+-20.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.7% 16.7% 6.00 +21.7%

Draw 20.1% 22.2% 4.50 -5.7%

Away win 57.2% 73.5% 1.36 -22.2%

Over 2.5 67.0% 76.9% 1.30 -12.9%

Over 3.5 44.0% 55.6% 1.80 -20.8%

BTTS 61.8% 69.4% 1.44 -11.0%

Home O1.5 32.1% 33.3% 3.00 -3.7%

Away O1.5 65.0% 75.2% 1.33 -13.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob61.8%

A 57% / xG 1.1-2.6 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2✓ 9.2%

#2 0–2 8.3%

#3 1–1 7.1%

#4 1–3 7.9%

#5 0–3 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

KPV-j1.1

VJS2.6

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.0%

Form & verdict PPG

KPV-J · PPG 0.78

VJS · PPG 1.22

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.47 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

KPV-j (H) 22.7%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +21.7%

Draw 20.1%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -5.7%

VJS (A) 57.2%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -22.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

KPV-j face VJS in Finland - Ykkonen on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives KPV-j a 23% chance, the draw 20% and VJS 57%, so VJS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for KPV-j and 2.6 for VJS (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, KPV-j are averaging 0.78 points per game versus 1.22 for VJS. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +2.7%. This match finished 1-2.

KPV-j vs VJS Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Match Preview & Prediction

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