Today / Italy - Serie C - Girone C / Giugliano vs Benevento

Giugliano vs Benevento Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Girone C · Matchday 37 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 18:30

Giugliano

PPG 1.28 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Benevento

PPG 1.94 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLDD

// Model verdict

Away 40% chance

Model probability 62.9% vs bookmaker-implied 29.4% — a clear edge.

+113.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-114.1%0-212.7%0-37.7%0-4+5.3%1 1-05.8%1-110.5%1-29.5%1-35.7%1-4+3.9%2 2-02.1%2-13.9%2-23.5%2-32.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-00.5%3-11.0%3-20.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.8% 51.3% 1.95 -71.1%

Draw 22.3% 29.4% 3.40 -24.2%

Away win 62.9% 29.4% 3.40 +113.9%

Over 2.5 47.1% 57.1% 1.75 -17.6%

Over 3.5 25.5% 34.5% 2.90 -26.1%

BTTS 43.9% 62.5% 1.60 -29.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob43.9%

A 63% / xG 0.7-1.8 / O2.5 47% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 14.1%

#2 0–2 12.7%

#3 1–1✓ 10.5%

#4 1–2 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Giugliano0.7

Benevento1.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.1% · O3.5 PROB 25.5%

Form & verdict PPG

GIUGLIANO · PPG 1.28

BENEVENTO · PPG 1.94

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

40%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.94) vs Home AVERAGE (1.28)

Win probability 1X2

Giugliano (H) 14.8%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -71.1%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -24.2%

Benevento (A) 62.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +113.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Giugliano face Benevento in Italy - Serie C - Girone C on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Giugliano a 15% chance, the draw 22% and Benevento 63%, so Benevento are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Giugliano and 1.8 for Benevento (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Giugliano are averaging 1.28 points per game versus 1.94 for Benevento. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +113.9%. This match finished 1-1.

Giugliano vs Benevento Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Match Preview & Prediction

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