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Once Caldas vs America de Cali Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura · Matchday 3 ·Thursday, August 6, 2026, 01:30

Once Caldas

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

America de Cali

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.5% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-16.9%0-23.3%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.2%1-111.5%1-25.5%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.2%2-19.6%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.7%3-15.4%3-22.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-13.3%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.5% 50.0% 2.00 +7.0%

Draw 24.6% 30.8% 3.25 -12.0%

Away win 21.8% 26.3% 3.80 -10.3%

Over 2.5 53.4% 47.6% 2.10 +12.1%

Over 3.5 30.8% 26.3% 3.80 +17.0%

BTTS 53.1% 54.1% 1.85 -1.8%

Home O1.5 48.8% 46.5% 2.15 +4.9%

Away O1.5 27.7% 29.9% 3.35 -4.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.1%

H 54% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–0 12.2%

#3 2–0 10.2%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Once Caldas1.7

America de Cali0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 30.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ONCE CALDAS · PPG 2.00

AMERICA DE CALI · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.72 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Once Caldas (H) 53.5%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +7.0%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -12.0%

America de Cali (A) 21.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -10.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Once Caldas face America de Cali in Colombia - Primera A on Thursday, August 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Once Caldas a 54% chance, the draw 25% and America de Cali 22%, so Once Caldas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Once Caldas and 0.9 for America de Cali (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Once Caldas are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.25 for America de Cali. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +17.0%.

Once Caldas vs America de Cali Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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