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Union Santa Fe vs Central Cordoba de Santiago Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Tuesday, August 11, 2026, 00:15

Union Santa Fe

PPG 1.78 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Central Cordoba de Santiago

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-14.7%0-21.3%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-016.2%1-19.0%1-22.5%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.5%2-18.6%2-22.4%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.8%3-15.5%3-21.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-07.3%4+-14.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.4% 65.4% 1.53 -15.2%

Draw 22.5% 28.6% 3.50 -12.8%

Away win 22.1% 13.2% 7.60 +40.8%

Over 2.5 50.0% 46.5% 2.15 +7.5%

Over 3.5 29.6% 26.0% 3.85 +8.4%

BTTS 47.7% 46.5% 2.15 +2.5%

Home O1.5 54.6% 56.5% 1.77 -3.4%

Away O1.5 16.7% 18.2% 5.50 -4.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -2.5%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.7%

H 55% / xG 1.9-0.6 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.5%

#2 1–0 16.2%

#3 1–1 9.0%

#4 0–0 8.5%

#5 3–0 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Union Santa Fe1.9

Central Cordoba de Santiago0.6

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 29.6%

Form & verdict PPG

UNION SANTA FE · PPG 1.78

CENTRAL CORDOBA DE SANTIAGO · PPG 0.33

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.35 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Union Santa Fe (H) 55.4%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -15.2%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -12.8%

Central Cordoba de Santiago (A) 22.1%

ODDS 7.60 · IMPLIED 13.2% EV +40.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Union Santa Fe face Central Cordoba de Santiago in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Tuesday, August 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Union Santa Fe a 55% chance, the draw 23% and Central Cordoba de Santiago 22%, so Union Santa Fe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Union Santa Fe and 0.6 for Central Cordoba de Santiago (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Union Santa Fe are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 0.33 for Central Cordoba de Santiago. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +8.4%. This match finished 1-2.

Union Santa Fe vs Central Cordoba de Santiago Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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