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Atletico Tucuman vs Sarmiento Junin Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 17:45

Atletico Tucuman

PPG 1.33 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Sarmiento Junin

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.6% vs bookmaker-implied 53.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-17.8%0-22.9%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.0%1-111.8%1-24.4%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.0%2-18.9%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.0%3-14.5%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-12.3%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.6% 53.5% 1.87 +0.2%

Draw 25.4% 31.3% 3.20 -11.2%

Away win 21.1% 22.5% 4.45 -3.7%

Over 2.5 47.0% 38.5% 2.60 +22.2%

Over 3.5 28.8% 19.0% 5.25 +30.7%

BTTS 48.4% 44.4% 2.25 +8.9%

Home O1.5 45.4% 43.5% 2.30 +4.4%

Away O1.5 17.4% 21.1% 4.75 -10.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -2.5%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.4%

H 54% / xG 1.5-0.7 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.0%

#2 1–1 11.8%

#3 0–0 10.6%

#4 2–0 12.0%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico Tucuman1.5

Sarmiento Junin0.7

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO TUCUMAN · PPG 1.33

SARMIENTO JUNIN · PPG 0.33

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.77 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Atletico Tucuman (H) 53.6%

ODDS 1.87 · IMPLIED 53.5% EV +0.2%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -11.2%

Sarmiento Junin (A) 21.1%

ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV -3.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico Tucuman face Sarmiento Junin in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico Tucuman a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Sarmiento Junin 21%, so Atletico Tucuman are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Atletico Tucuman and 0.7 for Sarmiento Junin (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico Tucuman are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.33 for Sarmiento Junin. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +36.6%. This match finished 1-2.

Atletico Tucuman vs Sarmiento Junin Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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