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Defensa Y Justicia vs Newells Old Boys Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 20:45

Defensa Y Justicia

PPG 1.20 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Newells Old Boys

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 57.2% vs bookmaker-implied 39.2% — a clear edge.

+45.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-15.7%0-22.9%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.6%1-110.6%1-25.4%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.8%2-19.9%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.1%3-16.1%3-23.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-14.4%4+-22.2%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.6% 44.6% 2.24 +17.8%

Draw 23.3% 33.3% 3.00 -18.1%

Away win 24.1% 29.0% 3.45 -10.1%

Over 2.5 57.2% 39.2% 2.55 +45.9%

Over 3.5 34.4% 20.0% 5.00 +72.0%

BTTS 54.6% 48.8% 2.05 +11.9%

Home O1.5 55.4% 38.5% 2.60 +44.0%

Away O1.5 31.3% 27.4% 3.65 +14.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -2.5%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.6%

H 53% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1✓ 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.8%

#4 1–0 10.6%

#5 0–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Defensa Y Justicia1.9

Newells Old Boys1.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.2% · O3.5 PROB 34.4%

Form & verdict PPG

DEFENSA Y JUSTICIA · PPG 1.20

NEWELLS OLD BOYS · PPG 0.89

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.85 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Defensa Y Justicia (H) 52.6%

ODDS 2.24 · IMPLIED 44.6% EV +17.8%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -18.1%

Newells Old Boys (A) 24.1%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -10.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Defensa Y Justicia face Newells Old Boys in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Defensa Y Justicia a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Newells Old Boys 24%, so Defensa Y Justicia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Defensa Y Justicia and 1.0 for Newells Old Boys (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Defensa Y Justicia are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.89 for Newells Old Boys. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +72.0%. This match finished 2-1.

Defensa Y Justicia vs Newells Old Boys Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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