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Argentinos JRS vs Racing Club Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 23:15

Argentinos JRS

PPG 2.38 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Racing Club

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 47.2% — a clear edge.

+10.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.6%0-18.7%0-22.6%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.4%1-111.6%1-23.4%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.9%2-17.7%2-22.3%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.7%3-13.4%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-11.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.3% 47.2% 2.12 +10.9%

Draw 27.0% 32.8% 3.05 -10.6%

Away win 20.7% 27.0% 3.70 -14.1%

Over 2.5 36.3% 36.4% 2.75 -0.2%

Over 3.5 19.3% 17.4% 5.75 +6.6%

BTTS 45.5% 44.4% 2.25 +2.4%

Home O1.5 37.4% 38.2% 2.62 -2.0%

Away O1.5 17.4% 23.8% 4.20 -16.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -2.5%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob45.5%

H 52% / xG 1.3-0.6 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.4%

#2 0–0 14.6%

#3 1–1 11.6%

#4 2–0 12.9%

#5 2–1✓ 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Argentinos JRS1.3

Racing Club0.6

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.3% · O3.5 PROB 19.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ARGENTINOS JRS · PPG 2.38

RACING CLUB · PPG 1.33

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.73 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Argentinos JRS (H) 52.3%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV +10.9%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -10.6%

Racing Club (A) 20.7%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -14.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Argentinos JRS face Racing Club in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Argentinos JRS a 52% chance, the draw 27% and Racing Club 21%, so Argentinos JRS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Argentinos JRS and 0.6 for Racing Club (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Argentinos JRS are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 1.33 for Racing Club. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +6.6%. This match finished 2-1.

Argentinos JRS vs Racing Club Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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