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Gimnasia L.P. vs Barracas Central Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 20:45

Gimnasia L.P.

PPG 1.78 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Barracas Central

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.2%0-112.6%0-25.3%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-016.0%1-113.3%1-25.5%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.4%2-17.0%2-22.9%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.9%3-12.5%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.8%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.2% 54.1% 1.85 -27.5%

Draw 32.9% 32.3% 3.10 +2.0%

Away win 28.0% 20.8% 4.80 +20.6%

Over 2.5 36.3% 34.7% 2.88 +4.5%

Over 3.5 18.7% 16.7% 6.00 +7.3%

BTTS 48.4% 41.7% 2.40 +16.2%

Home O1.5 32.1% 41.7% 2.40 -23.0%

Away O1.5 20.4% 19.0% 5.25 +4.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -2.5%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.4%

H 39% / xG 1.1-0.8 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.2%

#2 1–1 13.3%

#3 1–0 16.0%

#4 0–1 12.6%

#5 2–0✓ 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gimnasia L.P.1.1

Barracas Central0.8

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.3% · O3.5 PROB 18.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GIMNASIA L.P. · PPG 1.78

BARRACAS CENTRAL · PPG 1.60

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.22, combined xG 1.89 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Gimnasia L.P. (H) 39.2%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -27.5%

Draw 32.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +2.0%

Barracas Central (A) 28.0%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +20.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gimnasia L.P. face Barracas Central in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gimnasia L.P. a 39% chance, the draw 33% and Barracas Central 28%, so Gimnasia L.P. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Gimnasia L.P. and 0.8 for Barracas Central (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gimnasia L.P. are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.60 for Barracas Central. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +19.9%. This match finished 2-0.

Gimnasia L.P. vs Barracas Central Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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