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Instituto Cordoba vs Gimnasia M. Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 00:30

Instituto Cordoba

PPG 1.78 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Gimnasia M.

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.2% vs bookmaker-implied 62.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.2%0-17.0%0-22.4%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.3%1-111.1%1-23.8%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.0%2-18.9%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.0%3-14.8%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-12.7%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.2% 62.1% 1.61 -11.1%

Draw 24.2% 27.8% 3.60 -7.7%

Away win 20.6% 17.2% 5.80 +11.7%

Over 2.5 50.3% 44.4% 2.25 +13.2%

Over 3.5 28.8% 23.8% 4.20 +12.6%

BTTS 48.4% 46.5% 2.15 +4.1%

Home O1.5 47.5% 52.4% 1.91 -9.3%

Away O1.5 17.4% 20.0% 5.00 -7.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -2.5%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.4%

H 55% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 16.3%

#2 2–0 13.0%

#3 1–1 11.1%

#4 0–0 10.2%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Instituto Cordoba1.6

Gimnasia M.0.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

INSTITUTO CORDOBA · PPG 1.78

GIMNASIA M. · PPG 0.67

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.92 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Instituto Cordoba (H) 55.2%

ODDS 1.61 · IMPLIED 62.1% EV -11.1%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.7%

Gimnasia M. (A) 20.6%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +11.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Instituto Cordoba face Gimnasia M. in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Instituto Cordoba a 55% chance, the draw 24% and Gimnasia M. 21%, so Instituto Cordoba are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Instituto Cordoba and 0.7 for Gimnasia M. (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Instituto Cordoba are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 0.67 for Gimnasia M.. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +28.1%. This match finished 1-0.

Instituto Cordoba vs Gimnasia M. Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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