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San Lorenzo vs Huracan Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 18:00

San Lorenzo

PPG 1.56 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Huracan

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.8%0-113.9%0-25.4%0-31.4%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.8%1-113.1%1-25.1%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-07.9%2-16.2%2-22.4%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.5%3-12.0%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.6%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.6% 36.2% 2.76 +9.3%

Draw 33.2% 36.4% 2.75 -8.7%

Away win 27.1% 34.5% 2.90 -12.8%

Over 2.5 36.3% 26.3% 3.80 +37.9%

Over 3.5 18.1% 11.8% 8.50 +32.3%

BTTS 46.3% 36.4% 2.75 +27.3%

Home O1.5 32.1% 25.0% 4.00 +28.4%

Away O1.5 18.7% 23.1% 4.33 -11.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -2.5%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob46.3%

H 40% / xG 0.9-0.8 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.8%

#2 1–1 13.1%

#3 1–0 16.8%

#4 0–1 13.9%

#5 2–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Lorenzo0.9

Huracan0.8

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.3% · O3.5 PROB 18.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN LORENZO · PPG 1.56

HURACAN · PPG 1.09

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.16, combined xG 1.73 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

San Lorenzo (H) 39.6%

ODDS 2.76 · IMPLIED 36.2% EV +9.3%

Draw 33.2%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -8.7%

Huracan (A) 27.1%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -12.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Lorenzo face Huracan in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Lorenzo a 40% chance, the draw 33% and Huracan 27%, so San Lorenzo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for San Lorenzo and 0.8 for Huracan (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Lorenzo are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.09 for Huracan. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +37.9%. This match finished 0-2.

San Lorenzo vs Huracan Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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